CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-06-02T06:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-06-02T06:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20403/-1
CME Note: The likely source for this CME is a filament eruption which is centered around on S35W40 best seen in SDO AIA 193/171/304 A starting around 2022-06-02T05:20Z, though it was noted in SDO 171 that faint field lines were seen leaving the disk which were out-ahead of the eruption off the limb and not associated with the filamentary material. Clear arrival signature at L1: sudden increase in B total to approximately 11.5 nT (eventually going to over 14 nT), accompanied by a sharp temporary increase in density to 51 n(cm^-3) and ion temperature. Clear shock in the magnetic field, rotation of the Bz component (briefly reaching -11 nT), gradual rotation of Bx. Solar wind speed jumped from 260 km/s to approximately 315 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-06-06T09:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-06-05T23:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 65.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Predicted Dst min. in nT: -90
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:
DSF S30W30-S40W50, CME mostly westward, with some expansion back around to the solar CM, so likely so component will reach the Earth's magnetosphere. Forecasting most likely G1 (maybe chance G2) due to size of the filament (not that big), location being quite south and west, shape of associated CME perhaps biased west, and also speed from CAT not that fast. Though geoeffective magnitude estimate considered difficult. Prediction based on LASCO C2 and C3, no STEREO-A available at the time of use of US CAT tool.Lead Time: 76.22 hour(s)
Difference: 10.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2022-06-03T05:07Z
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